End of Year Texas Economic Review
Posted by Bryan Cady on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016 at 11:04am.
To start the new year, here's a great economic forecast from our friend Mark Sprague, The State Director of Information Capital for Independence Title. This excerpt is specific to Austin; click here to read the entire article.
"...Austin is the last major Texas metro that we will address. Austin cannot continue to grow West due to geography, road infrastructure, and environmental concerns. Do we move east, north or south? Recruitment of new business and organic local growth will be the driver of our city’s economy for the foreseeable future.
Google and Apple have not even begun to hit stride in expansion. Other companies that are moving to or expanding in Austin are Dell /EMC, GMC, Hewlett Packard, the University of Texas medical school, and Emerson Process Management. The potential for continued growth is much greater in Central Texas than the rest of the nation.
The strength of this market is shown by the number of units being brought to the market and absorbed. It is not a secret that Austin has the most expensive housing costs in the state of Texas, and this trend will continue in a slower fashion, even as more supply comes online. While the median household income can still buy a median-priced home in areas surrounding Austin, home values in the core are well out of range for many would-be homeowners. As a result, demand for apartments in these areas has risen significantly as residents seeking to locate near popular employment and cultural districts choose to rent in lieu of homeownership. This is apparent as we see 10,800+/- units brought to the market, following 12,100 in 2014. That type of growth and development has not been seen since the late 80’s in the Austin area. Yet concessions are few, and rents continue to rise, although slower.
The Liberty Hill, Cedar Park, and Leander areas are experiencing rapid growth because they have some of the last affordable, developable land available. Home sales in the $400K to $700K will be the most difficult to move for sellers. Values will continue to improve, just not as aggressively. As a smaller builder, I would stay focused on value for the dollar and keeping labor happy as competition continues to battle for their services. The ability to build entry level homes will present opportunity for large market share for those builders who can do so.
The demand for office space is apparent with the number of construction cranes dotting the landscape. In 2015 3.5 million square feet will be completed, which is the largest amount of space delivered since 2007. Last year, office inventory rose by 1.1 million square feet. The strong demand has kept occupancy in the low 90% range, and rents continue to escalate.
We started this conversation concerned with the cooling of the regional market. Yet, if we look at the numbers, the continued pace of sales and values should continue. All this positive news actually scares me a little, since in my lifetime I have never seen Austin or Texas with this level of potential and few clouds on the local horizon. Time will tell."
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